Investment Outlook: China First to Face Wave of Uncertainty

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Heading into 2020, we felt that central bank policies in the U.S. and China would adequately support global growth, and my investment summary for 2020 was “Don’t worry; be happy.” Since then, the coronavirus outbreak occurred in China and spread, causing a global slowdown—a de facto recession. This slowdown is reflected in lower stock prices, lower commodity prices and historically low interest rates. Now, we are monitoring two separate coronavirus scenarios, one in China and one in the U.S., in terms of (a) the date of the peak coronavirus health impact and (b) the amount and length of economic slowdown.

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JanvEck_Outlook_PUBLIC_2020-03

 

 

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